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There are countries where it is almost certain that a trade deficit will occur. For example, the United States has had a trade deficit since , in large part due to its imports of oil and consumer products. Conversely, China, a country that produces and exports many of the world's consumable goods, has recorded a trade surplus since A trade surplus or deficit, taken on its own, is not necessarily a viable indicator of an economy's health.

Balance of trade is the largest component of a country's balance of payments BOP. Sometimes the balance of trade between a country's goods and the balance of trade between its services are distinguished as two separate figures.

The balance of trade is also referred to as the trade balance, the international trade balance, commercial balance, or the net exports. The formula for calculating the BOT can be simplified as the total value of exports minus the total value of its imports. Economists use the BOT to measure the relative strength of a country's economy.

A country that imports more goods and services than it exports in terms of value has a trade deficit or a negative trade balance. Conversely, a country that exports more goods and services than it imports has a trade surplus or a positive trade balance. There are countries where it is almost certain that a trade deficit will occur.

For example, the United States, where actually, a trade deficit is not a recent occurrence. In fact, the country has had a persistent trade deficit since the s. Throughout most of the 19th century, the country also had a trade deficit between and , the United States ran a trade deficit for all but three years. A trade surplus or deficit is not always a viable indicator of an economy's health, and it must be considered in the context of the business cycle and other economic indicators.

For example, in a recession , countries prefer to export more to create jobs and demand in the economy. In times of economic expansion , countries prefer to import more to promote price competition, which limits inflation.

In , Germany had the largest trade surplus by current account balance. Japan was second and China was third, in terms of the largest trade surplus. Conversely, the United States had the largest trade deficit, even with the ongoing trade war with China, with the United Kingdom and Brazil coming in second and third. A country with a large trade deficit borrows money to pay for its goods and services, while a country with a large trade surplus lends money to deficit countries.

In some cases, the trade balance may correlate to a country's political and economic stability because it reflects the amount of foreign investment in that country. Debit items include imports, foreign aid, domestic spending abroad, and domestic investments abroad. Credit items include exports, foreign spending in the domestic economy, and foreign investments in the domestic economy.

By subtracting the credit items from the debit items, economists arrive at a trade deficit or trade surplus for a given country over the period of a month, a quarter, or a year. Trade Deficits. Council on Foreign Relations. Bureau of Economic Analysis. International Trade in Goods and Services, August